As Facts First USA responds to the extreme MAGA-led investigations, we wanted to better quantify the dangerous terrain that Kevin McCarthy’s corrupt bargain has forced the Republican caucus onto.

In 1998, it took almost a year for the public to fully turn against the Republican investigations into President Clinton as being a partisan witch hunt. MAGA extremists have barely had their hands on the gavel and already the public has turned against their partisan investigations of the Biden administration.

Public Opinion
1)	The American people are upset because Republicans are focusing on investigating the Biden administration instead of governing on what they campaigned on
2)	This puts Republicans in a very dangerous spot, even with voters of their own party, before they have even begun
3)	The Republicans’ position will weaken further when politicians who voters dislike and distrust, such as Marjorie Taylor Greene, Jim Jordan, and Paul Gosar, are leading the charge on screen
4)	McCarthy has boxed House Republicans in on this with his corrupt bargain to become Speaker

 

Republicans’ Misguided Priorities

Registered voters nationwide believe that the Republican majority in the US House is more focused on pursuing investigations of President Biden and the Democratic Party (49%) rather than on passing legislation to address major issues (35%).

Notably, even 4-in-10 Republican voters think that their own party is more focused on investigating Biden and Democrats (41%) than on advancing real reforms (47%).

Republicans’ Misguided Priorities1
House Republicans’ Primary Focus	% Registered Voters Nationwide	% Republicans Nationwide
Passing legislation to address major issues	35%	47%
Investigating Joe Biden and Democrats	49%	41%
Not sure	16%	12%

¹ January 2023 Facts First poll with 909 registered voters nationwide

 

Further, in a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS, fewer than one-third of Americans believe that House GOP leaders are prioritizing the country’s most important issues. Nearly half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents also say their party’s House leadership hasn’t displayed the right priorities.

Republicans’ Misguided Priorities2
Position	% Adults Nationwide	Republicans	Republican- leaning Independents
Republican leaders in the House have had the right priorities	27%	51%	53%
Republican leaders in the House haven’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems	73%	48%	46%

A 67% majority also disapproves of the Republican leaders in Congress and CNN notes that these ratings are weighed down by high dissatisfaction within their own party.

Weak Approval Ratings for Republican Leaders3
Position	% Adults Nationwide	Republicans	Republican- leaning Independents
TOTAL APPROVE OF REPUBLICAN LEADERS IN CONGRESS	32%	63%	58%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE OF REPUBLICAN LEADERS IN CONGRESS	67%	37%	42%

² January 2023 CNN/SSRS Poll with 1,004 US adults

³ January 2023 CNN/SSRS Poll with 1,004 US adults

 

Leading Republicans are Disliked and Distrusted

Leading Republicans pushing for investigations into the Biden administration are among the most disliked and distrusted elected officials nationwide.

Nationwide Favorability Ratings of Leading Republicans4
Elected Official	TOTAL FAVORABLE	TOTAL UNFAV	Rating
Matt Gaetz	18%	39%	-21
Marjorie Taylor Greene	27%	46%	-19
Donald Trump	43%	57%	-14
Kevin McCarthy	27%	40%	-13
Jim Jordan	22%	31%	-9

 

Nationwide Trust Ratings of Leading Republicans5
Elected Official	Trustworthy	Not Trustworthy	Rating
Marjorie Taylor Greene	20%	41%	-21
Matt Gaetz	19%	34%	-15
Donald Trump	38%	52%	-14
Kevin McCarthy	26%	38%	-12

⁴ November 2022 Facts First USA Poll with 1,000 registered voters nationwide

⁵ November 2022 Facts First USA Poll with 1,000 registered voters nationwide

 

McCarthy’s Corrupt Bargain

 A majority of registered voters nationwide (53 percent) agree that McCarthy “conceded too much ground to the conservative House Freedom Caucus in order to be elected Speaker, leaving him with little actual authority and beholden to the far-right.”

McCarthy’s Corrupt Bargain: Registered Voters Nationwide6
Statement	TOTAL AGREE
Kevin McCarthy conceded too much ground to the conservative House Freedom Caucus in order to be elected as Speaker, leaving him with little actual authority and beholden to the far-right.	53%

Voters also maintain that the grueling fight McCarthy underwent to become Speaker indicates that he doesn’t have his party’s full support and thus won’t be able to get things done (47 percent), while just 29 percent believe that this won’t affect his power or influence.

McCarthy’s Corrupt Bargain7
The fight Kevin McCarthy underwent with far-right Republicans to become Speaker…	% Registered Voters Nationwide
Indicates that he doesn’t have the full support of his party and won’t be able to get things done	47%
Is in the past, and won’t really affect his power or influence as Speaker	29%
Not sure	24%

⁶ January 2023 Facts First poll with 909 registered voters nationwide

⁷ January 2023 Facts First poll with 909 registered voters nationwide

 

A recent USA Today/Ipsos poll confirms these findings as a majority of Americans says it seems unlikely that Republicans will do any compromising with Democrats over the next two years. Further, approx. one-half of those surveyed say moderate Republicans in Congress should have struck a deal with moderate Democrats to elect a moderate GOP speaker.

Republican Manufactured Gridlock8
Statement	TOTAL AGREE
With how this fight for the speakership worked out, it seems unlikely that Republicans will do any compromising with Democrats over the next two years	58%
Moderate Republicans in Congress should have struck a deal with moderate Democrats to elect a moderate Republican Speaker of the House	48%

Americans were also almost twice as likely to say that McCarthy’s prolonged fight and corrupt bargain to become Speaker of the House weakened rather strengthened the Republican Party.

⁸ January 2023 USA Today/Ipsos Poll with 2,010 US adults

⁹ January 2023 USA Today/Ipsos Poll with 2,010 US adults

 

Looking Back at 1998: House GOP Ruins its own Credibility

Between 1998 and 1999, it took almost a year for the public to fully turn against the Republican investigations into President Clinton as being a partisan farse, ultimately standing in the way of getting any governing done. Overreach and nakedly political attacks from the House GOP ultimately drove Clinton’s favorability up while decimating their own credibility with voters. While not fully analogous to today’s circumstances, it’s clear that today’s public mood has soured much faster for Republicans, who begin their investigations with the public already in stark opposition.

In 1998, a full 72% of Americans believed it was important to investigate the Democratic President¹⁰ — today there is broad consensus that investigating Biden should not be a priority at all.

By December 1998, after a year of personal partisan attacks and political overreach from Republicans, the tides had shifted entirely. Conducted in the days following the House vote to impeach Clinton, a New York Times/CBS News poll¹² found that:

Public Opinion After House Impeachment Vote: December 1998 New York Times/CBS News Poll
Position	% Adults Nationwide
Approve of the job Clinton is doing overall	72%
The Senate should acquit Clinton	68%
Clinton should be able to finish his term	65%
Disapprove of the House impeachment vote	60%
Unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party	58%

¹⁰ April 1998 Washington Post Poll with 809 adults

¹² December 1998 New York Times/CBS News Poll with 1,215 US adults

 

These views had crystallized by January 1999 when a Los Angeles Times poll¹³ found that:

Republicans’ Motives: US Adults Nationwide
Statement	TOTAL AGREE
Republicans in Congress are pursuing impeachment primarily because they want to hurt President Clinton politically	59%

The same poll found that the Republican-controlled Congress had become far less popular by January 1999 as well.

Table 13. Approval Ratings: January 1999 LA Times Poll
Official/Group	APPROVE	DISAPPROVE	RATING
President Clinton	67%	30%	+37
Congress	46%	46%	0

In fact, the politically motivated process caused the Republican-controlled Congress’ approval rating to decrease a net 16 points in just four months.

 

 

 

 

 

¹³ January 1999 LA Times Poll with 960 US adults

 

***

This is the third in a series of messaging memos from Facts First. Our first memo put forward the corrupt bargain message to describe Kevin McCarthy’s attempt to buy the votes to become Speaker. That framing has resonated, with allies amplifying the message and the media reporting on each McCarthy deal. Our second memo discussed key takeaways from our initial poll.